Airbus expects the global maintenance and repair services market to nearly double by 2043, rising from the current $150 billion to $290 billion annually.
In its latest 20-year forecast, released on September 18, 2024, the company states that the global commercial fleet will grow to 48,230 aircraft during this period, including 42,430 new deliveries. Of these, more than 18,400 aircraft will require replacement, paving the way for their repair, recycling, and reuse.
Airbus notes that this undertaking will require a vast skilled workforce. Over the next two decades, the industry will need 2.26 million new personnel, including 690,000 maintenance technicians.
The report focuses on three workstreams: “Maintain” (maintenance, spare parts, and aircraft lifecycle services), “Train & Operate” (training and flight operations services), and “Enhance” (upgrades, connectivity, and in-flight entertainment services).
By 2043, the “Maintain” stream will account for 85% of the total market at $244 billion, while the “Operate” stream will reach $17 billion and the “Enhance” stream will hit $29 billion.
South Asia and the Middle East are projected to show the highest growth over the next two decades, with China emerging as the largest services market at $61 billion by 2043. North America and Asia-Pacific will each represent $50 billion, while Europe will stand at $55 billion. The aircraft recycling market is set to experience an annual growth rate of 7.5%, with projections indicating it will reach approximately $500 million by 2043. Currently, there are over 100 recycling service centers worldwide, a figure expected to triple by 2043.
Airbus states that the ground operations market will grow from its current $39 billion to $65 billion, driven by increased efficiency through digitalization and automation.